Mercedes M class Essay Example for Free

Mercedes M class Essay This year Mercedes-Benz Company announcing the new M Class SUVs for their middle aged costumers. The M Class offers a stylish alternative to box-on-box SUVs, and can be equipped with as much off-road capability as most drivers would ever need. It doesn’t go light on luxury or amenities, either, and its cabin feels more like a Mercedes sedan than a premium sport-use. In fact, Mercedes has made an effort to step up its materials, fit and finish game on the inside of third-generation M Class models, and its efforts show. Market segmentation strategy The purpose for segmenting a market is to allow your marketing/sales program to focus on the subset of prospects that are most likely to purchase your offering. There are four different dimensions used to describe a product’s market segmentation. These four things are demographic, behavioral, psychographic, and geographic. The most popular marketing segmentation used by researchers is the demographic segmentation. Demographic segmentation: Mercedes Benz M class demographic includes adults, both male and female, mostly middle-aged people. They are not very popular with youngsters since the brand is very expensive. Yes there is college kids and in some cases even high school kids with Mercedes Benz cars, but they were still purchased by their parents. Due to their relative expense, * 2013 Mercedes-Benz M class /http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2013-mercedes-benz-gl-class-photos-and-info-news The M class is targeted to people of middle to high incomes. Unlike Chrysler or GMC, for instance, Mercedes doesn’t offer prices ranging from high to low so the products don’t resemble consumers with a low income. Behavioral segmentation: is the most powerful approach because it uses actual consumer behavior or product usage to make distinctions among market segments. When referring to the M class behavioral segmentation, it is purchased among heavy users, it’s a car you can use on a day-to-day basis, whether going to work or to the grocery store. Most of the people that purchase the M class do it for different reasons; quality, beauty, speed, etc. Psychographic segmentation: the M class is commonly purchased among  people who have a family, since it’s a SUV. Some of the reasons its customers prefer the M class is for its safety, and by being a luxury car it gives you a certain status among society. When referring to the geographic segmentation of the M class, it is mainly targeted toward somewhat wealthy countries. The M class is sold worldwide m even though its biggest market is in the United States. Other target markets for the M class may include single males, females, single parents with or without children or teenagers, married couples, and males and females who are divorced. There are many different target markets for the M class and the ones mentioned before are its main target markets. Positioning: Mercedes Benz has always been known for delivering quality, reliability and its safety. Delivering Mercedes-brand qualities and features at a more moderate price is a luxury marketing strategy conceived with a long range vision. Their goal is to build lifetime brand loyalty by meeting the automobile consumer at nearly every price point throughout their progress through different life stages. In line with the Mercedes-Benz brand philosophy, the new Mercedes-Benz M-Class represents the embodiment of the Mercedes-Benz holistic safety concept of Real Life Safety, which is derived from what happens in a real accident situation. In combination with the front and rear deformation zones, the high-strength passenger cell of the M-Class provides a highly effective foundation for the occupant protection systems. Both active safety and driver-fitness safety in the new M-Class are further improved by assistance systems that will already be familiar, primarily from the S-Class and E-Class. Reference: 1. Benz says its like a three-row S-class, but theres also a heck of a lot of M-class. / http://www.leftlanenews.com/new-car-buying/mercedes-benz/m-class/review/ 2. Mercedes Benz M class /http://www.caranddriver.com/news/2013-mercedes-benz-gl-class-photos-and-info-news/ 3. On Mercedes Benz’ luxury /http://www.smallbusinessadvocate.com/small-business-articles/on-mercedes-benz-luxury-1111/

Framework for Speech Enhancement and Recognition

Framework for Speech Enhancement and Recognition A Generalized Framework for Speech Enhancement and Recognition with Special Focus On Patients with Speech Disorders Literature Review Kumara Sharma et.al. have proposed Harmonics-to-Noise Ratio and Critical-Band Energy Spectrum of speech as Acoustic Indicators of Laryngeal and Voice Pathology [8]. Acoustic analysis of speech signals is a noninvasive technique that has been proved to be an effective tool for the objective support of vocal and voice disease screening. In the present study acoustic analysis of sustained vowels is considered. A simple k-means nearest neighbor classifier is designed to test the efficacy of a harmonics-to-noise ratio (HNR) measure and the critical-band energy spectrum of the voiced speech signal as tools for the detection of laryngeal pathologies [12]. It groups the given voice signal sample into pathologic and normal. The voiced speech signal is decomposed into harmonic and noise components using an iterative signal extrapolation algorithm. The HNRs at four different frequency bands are estimated and used as features. Voiced speech is also filtered with 21 critical-band pass filters tha t mimic the human auditory neurons. Normalized energies of these filter outputs are used as another set of features. The HNR and the critical-band energy spectrum can be used to correlate laryngeal pathology and voice alteration, using previously classified voice samples. This method could be an additional acoustic indicator that supplements the clinical diagnostic features for voice evaluation [42]. Cepstral-based estimation is used to provide a baseline estimate of the noise level in the logarithmic spectrum for voiced speech. A theoretical description of Cepstral processing of voiced speech containing aspiration noise, together with supporting empirical data, is provided in order to illustrate the nature of the noise baseline estimation process. Taking the Fourier transform of the liftered (filtered in the Cepstral domain) cepstrum produces a noise baseline estimate. It is shown that Fourier transforming the low-pass liftered cepstrum is comparable to applying a moving average (MA) filter to the logarithmic spectrum and hence the baseline receives contributions from the glottal source excited vocal tract and the noise excited vocal tract[43]. Because the estimation process resembles the action of a MA filter, the resulting noise baseline is determined by the harmonic resolution as determined by the temporal analysis window length and the glottal source spectral tilt. On select ing an appropriate temporal analysis window length the estimated baseline is shown to lie halfway between the glottal excited vocal tract and the noise excited vocal tract. This information is employed in a new harmonics-to-noise (HNR) estimation technique, which is shown to provide accurate HNR estimates when tested on synthetically generated voice signals. HNR is defined as the ratio between the energy of the periodic component to the energy of the aperiodic component in the signal. As such it is sensitive to all forms of waveform aperiodicity [8],[12]. It only specifically reflects a signal to aspiration noise ratio when other aperiodicities in the signal are comparatively low. Validation of a HNR method requires testing the technique against synthesis data with a priori knowledge of the HNR. Time-domain methods that require individual period detection for HNR estimation can be problematic because of the difficulty in estimating the period markers for pathological voiced speech. Frequency domain methods encounter the problem of estimating noise at harmonic locations .Cepstral techniques have been introduced to supply noise estimates at all frequency locations in the spectrum (the Cepstral processing removes the harmonics from the spectrum).It is shown that the cepstrum-based noise baseline estimation process is comparable to applying a moving average MA filter to the power spectrum and hence the baseline receives contributions from the glottal source excited vocal tract and the noise excited vocal tract. Two important issues need to be considered with respect to HNR estimation for sustained vowel phonation when inferring glottal noise levels: HNR is a global indicator of voice periodicity.HNR is indirectly related to the noise level of the glottal source .HNR provides a g lobal estimate of signal periodicity. Hence a low value of HNR can arise from any form of aperiodicity, for example, from aspiration noise, jitter, shimmer, nonstationarity of the vocal tract, or other waveform anomalies [43]. Daryush Mehta has discussed about Aspiration Noise during Phonation: Synthesis, Analysis, and Pitch-Scale Modification. The current study investigates the synthesis and analysis of aspiration noise in synthesized and spoken vowels. Based on the linear source-filter model of speech production, author has implemented a vowel synthesizer in which the aspiration noise source is temporally modulated by the periodic source waveform. Modulations in the noise source waveform and their synchronism with the periodic source are shown to be salient for natural-sounding vowel synthesis. The accurate estimation of the aspiration noise component that contains energy across the frequency spectrum and temporal characteristics due to modulations in the noise source was a challenging task for the author. Spectral harmonic/noise component analysis of spoken vowels shows evidence of noise modulations with peaks in the estimated noise source component synchronous with both the open phase of the periodic s ource and with time instants of glottal closure [39]. Due to natural modulations in the aspiration noise source, author has developed an alternate approach to the speech signal processing with the aim of accurate pitch-scale modification. The proposed strategy takes a dual processing approach, in which the periodic and noise components of the speech signal are separately analyzed, modified, and re-synthesized. The periodic component is modified using our implementation of time-domain pitch-synchronous overlap-add, and the noise component is handled by modifying characteristics of its source waveform. Author has modeled an inherent coupling between the original periodic and aspiration noise sources; the modification algorithm is designed to preserve the synchronism between temporal modulations of the two sources [44]. The reconstructed modified signal is perceived to be natural-sounding and generally reduces artifacts. Arpit Mathur et.al. have discussed about the significance of parametric spectral ratio methods in detection and recognit ion of whispered speech [45]. Other References Kaladhar developed confusion matrix which is a matrix for a two-class classifier, contains information about actual and predicted classifications done by a classification system. The accuracy obtained by training the probabilistic neural network using Parkinson disease dataset got 100% as positives, predictions that an instance is positive, using WEKA 3 and Matlab v7. The data explored in this research was obtained from the Oxford Parkinsons Disease Detection Dataset. Data mining is the process of extracting patterns from data. Data mining is an important tool to transform this data into information. Authors present results with accuracy obtained by training the probabilistic neural network using the above dataset [46]. Xiao Li et.al. proposed a technique to reduce the likelihood computation in ASR systems that use continuous density HMMs. Based on the nature of dynamic features and the numerical properties of Gaussian mixture distributions, the observation likelihood computation is approximated to achieve a speedup. Although the technique does not show appreciable benefit in an isolated word task, it yields significant improvements in continuous speech recognition. For example, 50% of the computation can be saved on the TIMIT database with only a negligible degradation in system performance [47]. Authors analyze the case with only static features and their deltas and focus on achieving computational saving by partially computing the observation probability in a Gaussian component. It ignores computing the dynamic-feature part of an observation vector when its static-feature part already falls in the tail of a Gaussian. This technique doesnt require a complicated training procedure and brings almost no overhead to the decoding process. It is effective on both isolated word and connected word speech tasks, but works especially well on connected word recognition with high-dimensional dynamic features [47]. Elisabeth Ahlsà ©n has discussed different types of communication disorders. In case of Global aphasia there is nil or almost no linguistic communication. In case of Broca’s aphasia there is slow, effortful speech, telegram style, word finding problems known as anomia, relatively good comprehension. In case of Wernicke’s aphasia there is fluent verbose speech, w ord finding difficulties known as anomia, substitutions of words and sounds, impaired comprehension. In case of Anomic aphasia there are only word finding problems [49]. Kristen Jacobson explains about auditory and language processing disorders as follows. There are three general levels that speech sounds travel through while we are â€Å"listening†. The first level refers to the reception of sounds that occurs within our ears. A person who is diagnosed with a hearing impairment has difficulties perceiving sounds at this level. This problem is not referred to as a processing disorder. Central auditory processing disorders (CAPD) refer to difficulties discriminating, identifying and retaining sounds after the ears have heard the sounds. Individuals who experience difficulties attaching meaning to sound groups that form words, sentences and stories are often diagnosed with language processing disorders. They may also experience similar difficulties processing and organizing language for meaning during reading. Similar sounding words are often confused and some individuals may experience sensitivity to specific sounds. Reduced recognition of stre ss patterns and word boundaries within sentences is often present, especially during rapid speech or listening without visual cues. At times, only parts of messages are received accurately, so that messages and directions often appear incomplete. Specific language processing deficits are often reflected in delayed responses, the need to rehearse statements, and/or the need for frequent reviews while learning new information [50]. There are various types of speech disorders in children described as follows. Articulation: There is difficulty in the production of individual or sequenced sounds. The speakers exhibit substitutions, omissions, additions, and distortions of syllables or words. The Motor or Neurogenic speech disorders result into speech difficulties and affect the planning, coordination, timing, and execution of speech movements. Apraxia of speech is neurogenic motor speech disorder affecting the planning of speech. There is difficulty with the voluntary, purposeful movement of speech .The causes are stroke, tumor, head injury, and developmental disorders. The speakers can produce individual sounds but cannot produce them in longer words or sentences. Voice disorders affect pitch, duration, intensity, resonance, and vocal quality parameters. Fluency disorders produce interruptions in the flow of speaking. It is also known as stuttering. It means frequent repetition and/or prolongation of words or sounds [51]. Treatment of children with Speech Oral Placement Disorders (OPD)s needs various types of speech oral placement therapy (OPT) .Children with speech OPDs may have typical or a typical oral structures. The key to the definition of OPD lies in the child’s ability or inability to imitate auditory-visual stimuli and follow verbal oral placement instructions. Children with OPD cannot imitate targeted speech sounds using auditory and visual stimuli .They also cannot follow specific instructions to produce targeted speech sounds [52]. Thomas Dubuisson et.al. described an analysis system aiming at discriminating between normal and pathological voices. Based on the normal and pathological samples included the MEEI database, it has been found that using two features (spectral decrease and first spectral tristimuli in the Bark scale). Music Information Retrieval (MIR) aims at extracting information from music in order to build classification system of music. Temporal Domain features are Energy, mean, standard deviation. Spectral features are spectral Delta, Spectral Mean Value, Spectral Standard Deviation, Spectral Center of Gravity known as spectral centroid, Spectral Moments. The first four moments of the power spectrum M1, M2, M3, M4 . M3 is used to compute the skewness defining the orientation of the PSD around its first moment. If it is positive, the PSD is more oriented to the right and to the left if is negative. The skewness is computed as Skewness = M3/(M2)3/2 . The fourth moment is used to compute the kurtos is defining the acuity of the PSD around its first moment. A Gaussian distribution is having a kurtosis equal to 3, a distribution with a higher kurtosis is more acute than a Gaussian one while a distribution with a lower kurtosis is more flat than a Gaussian distribution. The kurtosis is computed as Kurtosis = M4/(M2)2. The Soft Phonation Index is defined for the (0–1000 Hz) and (0–8000 Hz) frequency bands [54]. Behnaz Ghoraani et.al. proposed a novel methodology for automatic pattern classification of pathological voices. The main contribution of this paper is extraction of meaningful and unique features using Adaptive time-frequency distribution (TFD) and nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). The proposed method extracts meaningful and unique features from the joint TFD of the speech, and automatically identifies and measures the abnormality of the signal. The proposed method is applied on the Massachusetts Eye and Ear Infirmary (MEEI) voice disorders database. As a matter of fact from the TFD of abnormal speech it is evident that there are more transients in the abnormal signals, and the formants in pathological speech are more spread and are less structured [55]. Corinne Fredouille et.al. have addressed voice disorder assessment. The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on dysphonic corpus (80) female voices. These observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis. The feature vectors issued from this analysis, at a 10 millisecond rate, are finally normalized to fit a 0-mean and 1-variance distribution. The LFSC/MFSC computation is done by using the (GPL) SPRO toolkit. Finally, the feature vectors can be augmented by adding dynamic information representing the way these vectors vary in time. Here, first and second derivatives of static coefficients are considered (also named Δ and ΔΔ coefficients) resulting in 72 coefficients [56]. Younggwan Kim et.al. discussed the role of the statistical model-based voice activity detector (SMVAD) to detect speech regions from input signals using the statistical models of noise and noisy speech. The LRT-based decision rule may cause detection errors because of statistical properties of noise and speech signals[57]. Wiqas Ghai et.al. described automatic speech recognition system as comprised of modules Speech Signal acquisition ,Feature extraction, using MFCC is done . Acoustic Modeling is done for expected phonetics of the hypothesis word/sentence. For generating mapping between the basic speech units such as phones, tri-phones syllables, a rigorous training is carried. During training, a pattern representative for the features of a class using one or more patterns corresponding to speech sounds of the same class. Language Lexical Modeling is done with the help of Text Corpus, Pronunciation Dictionary and Language Model [59]. Lucas Leon Oller presents analysis of voice signals for the Harmonics-to-Noise crossover frequency .The harmonics-to-noise ratio (HNR) has been used to assess the behavior of the vocal fold closure. The objective is to find a particular harmonics-to-noise crossover frequency (HNF) where the harmonic components of the voice drop below the noise floor, and use it as an indicator of the vocal fold insufficiency. . As the range used for the calculation of the cepstrum approaches the lowest octaves, the growth of the rahmonics should accelerate at some point, the range is going to contain harmonics that are above the noise floor level, and then the energy of the rahmonics will start to faster. That point would be the harmonics-to-noise crossover frequency [60]. Daryl Ning has developed an Isolated Word Recognition System in MATLAB. A robust speech-recognition system combines accuracy of identification with the ability to filter out noise and adapt to other acoustic conditions, such as the speaker’s speech rate and accent. It requires detailed knowledge of signal processing and statistical modeling [61]. Phonetic Concepts Daniel Jurafsky et.al. presented a case study of Star trek where robots converse with humans in natural Dialogue system with language conversational agents. Various components that make up modern conversational agents, including language input and language output dialogue ,automatic speech recognition, natural language understanding ,response planning , speech synthesis systems and the goal of machine translation which leads to automatic translation of a document from one language to another is explained here [62]. Steven Pruett describes speech as the motor act of communicating by articulating verbal expression and Language as the knowledge of a symbol system used for interpersonal communication. Mary Planchart has explained four domains of language namely Phonology, Grammar , Morphology ,Syntax , and Pragmatics [63], [64]. Eric J. Hunter has presented a case study of a 5 year old healthy male child. He has analyzed comparison of the child’s fundamental frequencies in structured elicited vocalizations versus unstructured natural vocalizations. The child also wore a National Center for Voice and Speech voice dosimeter, a device that collects voice data over the course of an entire day, during all activities for 34 hours over 4 days. It was observed that the child’s long-term F0 distribution is not normal. If this distribution is consistent in long-term, unstructured natural vocalization patterns of children, statistical mean would not be a valid measure. Author has suggested mode and median as two parameters which convey more accurate information about typical F0 usage [65].

Jefferson Davis :: essays research papers

Jefferson Davis was born on June, 3rd, 1808, in Christian County, Kentucky. He was educated at Transylvania University and at the U.S. Military Academy. After his graduation in 1828, he served in the army until bad health forced him to residn in 1835. He was a farmer in Mississippi from 1835 to 1845. Then he was elected to the U.S. congress. In 1846, he resigned his seat in order to serve in the Mexican War and fought at Monterrey and Buena Vista, where he was wounded. He was a U.S. Senator from Mississippi from 1847 to 1857, and a U.S. Senator again from 1857 to 1861. As a Senator, he was in support of slavery and states' rights. "He also influenced Pice to sign in the Kansas-Nebraska Act, which favored the South and increased the bitterness of the struggle over slavery. (Encarta, Davis Jefferson. 97)" In his second term as a Senator he became the spokesman for the Southern point of view. He opposed the idea of secession from the Union as a way of maintaining the principles in the South. Even after the first steps toward secession had been taken, he tried to keep the Southern states in the Union. When the state of Mississippi seceeded, he withdrew from the Senate. On February 18, 1861, the congress of the Confederate States made him president. He was elected to the office by popular vote for a 6-year term and was inaugurated un Richmond, Virginia, the new capital of the Confederacy. He failed to raise enough money to fight the Civil War and could not obtain help for the Confederacy from foreign governments. One of the accomplishments of Jefferson Dacis, was the raising of the Confederate army. Davis had a difficult task to preform. He was the head of the new nation in the beginnings of a major war. The South had inferior railroads compared to the Union, no navy, no gunpowder mills, and a reat lack of arms and ammunition. "The South's only resource seemed to have been of cotton and courage." (Davis, W. P 128). Despite this, the Confederates demolished the North at the battle of Bull Run. Somehow, with limited resources, Dacis made facotries for arms, cannons, powders and ammunition. Old naval yards were restored and gunboats were built. Davis sent agents to Europe to buy arms and ammunition and representatives were sent to try and secure help from England and France.

Women Essay -- essays papers

Women There are several ways one can look at the status of women in any society. During the last decade at least three approaches, not necessarily mutually exclusive, were discernible. One was to examine the common demographic indicators that give an overall picture of women's relative standing vis-Ã  -vis men. According to the 1981 census, the se ratio stood at 933 females per 1000 males. The literacy rate was 46.89 per cent for males and 24.82 per cent for females. The life expectancy at birth for females was 50 years and for males it was 50.9 years. The average age at marriage for females was 18.32 years and for males it was 23.27 years. The female work participation rate was 13.99 percent and the male work participation rate was 51.62 percent. Figures regarding economic participation rate for women have very little meaning as the definition of a worker has changed from one census to other. (Rehana Ghadially 1988 p.5) As a study by Australian demographer John C. Caldwell powerfull y demonstrates, for both men and women in Ibo traditional society many children have been the surest and stronger source of prestige. In the Ibo society, remaining unmarried is an extreme social divergence. It was considered central to man's nature to beget, and women's to conceive and bear, children. For women, marriage traditionally brought a variety of economic responsibilities and often only one source of both honor and security: their children. According to the Ibo tradition the man had to pay the family of the bride a bride price to secure her marriage. The payment was given in exchange for the economic value of woman to her husband in her labor and her children. Hence, for the husband and wife marriage was as much as anything else an economic compact. (James L. Newman, 1995, p.122) Customs governing division of labor, rights to land and to children varied widely. However, while a woman was married her husband generally held her labor and its fruits firmly within its grasp. In addition, the brides usually went to live with her husband's kin, and she was dependent on this group in which she was a virtual outsider. (Jennifer Seymour Whitaker, 1990, p. 99) Once involved with her new household, an Ibo woman often lived a life quite separate economically from that of her husband, in which the basic unit was herself and her children. She was usually expected to cook... ...king the money to pay tax and to buy useful things as farming tools, wives and sisters were left with more work than before: in gardens, in the fields, in the home. Through all the long social crisis of the Great Depression and the Second World War, women had to bear the heaviest burdens of poverty and oppersion. These burdens, for example, are depicted in Emecheta's Joys of Motherhood. Gross inequalities between men and women have generally prevailed. However, some progress has been made against them, and continues to be made. Girls and young women found new educational opportunities, and adult women have also joined in the drive for education, attending literacy classes and various forms of vocational training, while a wider range of jobs has become available for women in towns. Beyond this, women, too, have begun to join to gether in self defence so as to claim, and sometimes, get a better status in society. Several African countries, by the 1980's, had vigorous organizations for the advancement of women, staffed and run by women, forming their own programs for the benefit of women. None of this had been possible during colonial times. ( Basil Davidson, 1994, p.186-191)

Charlotte Brontes Jane Eyre Essay -- Charlotte Bronte Jane Eyre Essay

Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre 'Jane Eyre' was written in the mid-nineteenth century and is set during the Victorian period, at a time where a women's role in society was restrictive and repressive and class differences were distinct. A job as a governess was one of the only few respectable positions available to the educated but impoverished single women. Schools of the 19th century were strict, and they demanded much hard work and participation from the students, however, just the same, children of the time loved going to school. Most children felt that it was a privilege to attend school and they especially enjoyed the time it gave them to be with and socialize with other children. This is reflected in the novel because Jane is glad to be leaving her cruel aunt and of having the chance of going to school. In the country where small, one-room schools existed, the "Three Rs" were considered the most important subjects because, to be able to read the Bible would make a person a better Christian. In the novel, Mr. Brocklehurst said 'take away your heart of stone and give you a heart of flesh'. He was asking Jane to pray to God to change her attitude towards religion, highlighting the importance of religion. Good penmanship-writing was a valuable skill as neat, legible handwriting was considered a sign of a cultured person, and knowing how to solve mathematical-arithmetic problems was important for anyone who wanted to be a farmer, a store keeper, a craftsperson, a miller, or any number of other careers. The depiction of disease in Charlotte Bronte's Jane Eyre helps define Jane's social position and. This is because the poor were often associated with diseases such as tuberculosis in the Victorian peri... ...r experiences as an emotionally abused and lost child result to feelings of constant need to replenish herself and rely on herself. It is necessary for women to be independent in life; but not to the point where they lack trust in others and cannot develop relationships with other people. Jane constantly doubts her trust in other people. She denies relationships that could be truly fulfilling in her life because she lacks the ability to depend on or trust other people. However, she eventually does realise her mistakes and matures through them. In conclusion, I think that the most important reasons why Jane came to prefer Lowood to Gateshead despite its hardships is that she received love and affection at Lowood from mainly Miss Temple and Helen Burns, this was particularly important to Jane as she had not really had not really ever been loved by anyone.

A Game of Thrones Chapter Eighteen

Catelyn We will make King's Landing within the hour.† Catelyn turned away from the rail and forced herself to smile. â€Å"Your oarmen have done well by us, Captain. Each one of them shall have a silver stag, as a token of my gratitude.† Captain Moreo Turnitis favored her with a half bow. â€Å"You are far too generous, Lady Stark. The honor of carrying a great lady like yourself is all the reward they need.† â€Å"But they'll take the silver anyway.† Moreo smiled. â€Å"As you say.† He spoke the Common Tongue fluently, with only the slightest hint of a Tyroshi accent. He'd been plying the narrow sea for thirty years, he'd told her, as oarman, quartermaster, and finally captain of his own trading galleys. The Storm Dancer was his fourth ship, and his fastest, a two-masted galley of sixty oars. She had certainly been the fastest of the ships available in WhiteHarbor when Catelyn and Ser Rodrik Cassel had arrived after their headlong gallop downriver. The Tyroshi were notorious for their avarice, and Ser Rodrik had argued for hiring a fishing sloop out of the Three Sisters, but Catelyn had insisted on the galley. It was good that she had. The winds had been against them much of the voyage, and without the galley's oars they'd still be beating their way past the Fingers, instead of skimming toward King's Landing and journey's end. So close, she thought. Beneath the linen bandages, her fingers still throbbed where the dagger had bitten. The pain was her scourge, Catelyn felt, lest she forget. She could not bend the last two fingers on her left hand, and the others would never again be dexterous. Yet that was a small enough price to pay for Bran's life. Ser Rodrik chose that moment to appear on deck. â€Å"My good friend,† said Moreo through his forked green beard. The Tyroshi loved bright colors, even in their facial hair. â€Å"It is so fine to see you looking better.† â€Å"Yes,† Ser Rodrik agreed. â€Å"I haven't wanted to die for almost two days now.† He bowed to Catelyn. â€Å"My lady.† He was looking better. A shade thinner than he had been when they set out from WhiteHarbor, but almost himself again. The strong winds in the Bite and the roughness of the narrow sea had not agreed with him, and he'd almost gone over the side when the storm seized them unexpectedly off Dragonstone, yet somehow he had clung to a rope until three of Moreo's men could rescue him and carry him safely below decks. â€Å"The captain was just telling me that our voyage is almost at an end,† she said. Ser Rodrik managed a wry smile. â€Å"So soon?† He looked odd without his great white side whiskers; smaller somehow, less fierce, and ten years older. Yet back on the Bite it had seemed prudent to submit to a crewman's razor, after his whiskers had become hopelessly befouled for the third time while he leaned over the rail and retched into the swirling winds. â€Å"I will leave you to discuss your business,† Captain Moreo said. He bowed and took his leave of them. The galley skimmed the water like a dragonfly, her oars rising and falling in perfect time. Ser Rodrik held the rail and looked out over the passing shore. â€Å"I have not been the most valiant of protectors.† Catelyn touched his arm. â€Å"We are here, Ser Rodrik, and safely. That is all that truly matters.† Her hand groped beneath her cloak, her fingers stiff and fumbling. The dagger was still at her side. She found she had to touch it now and then, to reassure herself. â€Å"Now we must reach the king's master-at-arms, and pray that he can be trusted.† â€Å"Ser Aron Santagar is a vain man, but an honest one.† Ser Rodrik's hand went to his face to stroke his whiskers and discovered once again that they were gone. He looked nonplussed. â€Å"He may know the blade, yes . . . but, my lady, the moment we go ashore we are at risk. And there are those at court who will know you on sight.† Catelyn's mouth grew tight. â€Å"Littlefinger,† she murmured. His face swam up before her; a boy's face, though he was a boy no longer. His father had died several years before, so he was Lord Baelish now, yet still they called him Littlefinger. Her brother Edmure had given him that name, long ago at Riverrun. His family's modest holdings were on the smallest of the Fingers, and Petyr had been slight and short for his age. Ser Rodrik cleared his throat. â€Å"Lord Baelish once, ah . . . † His thought trailed off uncertainly in search of the polite word. Catelyn was past delicacy. â€Å"He was my father's ward. We grew up together in Riverrun. I thought of him as a brother, but his feelings for me were . . . more than brotherly. When it was announced that I was to wed Brandon Stark, Petyr challenged for the right to my hand. It was madness. Brandon was twenty, Petyr scarcely fifteen. I had to beg Brandon to spare Petyr's life. He let him off with a scar. Afterward my father sent him away. I have not seen him since.† She lifted her face to the spray, as if the brisk wind could blow the memories away. â€Å"He wrote to me at Riverrun after Brandon was killed, but I burned the letter unread. By then I knew that Ned would marry me in his brother's place.† Ser Rodrik's fingers fumbled once again for nonexistent whiskers. â€Å"Littlefinger sits on the small council now.† â€Å"I knew he would rise high,† Catelyn said. â€Å"He was always clever, even as a boy, but it is one thing to be clever and another to be wise. I wonder what the years have done to him.† High overhead, the far-eyes sang out from the rigging. Captain Moreo came scrambling across the deck, giving orders, and all around them the Storm Dancer burst into frenetic activity as King's Landing slid into view atop its three high hills. Three hundred years ago, Catelyn knew, those heights had been covered with forest, and only a handful of fisherfolk had lived on the north shore of the Blackwater Rush where that deep, swift river flowed into the sea. Then Aegon the Conqueror had sailed from Dragonstone. It was here that his army had put ashore, and there on the highest hill that he built his first crude redoubt of wood and earth. Now the city covered the shore as far as Catelyn could see; manses and arbors and granaries, brick storehouses and timbered inns and merchant's stalls, taverns and graveyards and brothels, all piled one on another. She could hear the clamor of the fish market even at this distance. Between the buildings were broad roads lined with trees, wandering crookback streets, and alleys so narrow that two men could not walk abreast. Visenya's hill was crowned by the Great Sept of Baelor with its seven crystal towers. Across the city on the hill of Rhaenys stood the blackened walls of the Dragonpit, its huge dome collapsing into ruin, its bronze doors closed now for a century. The Street of the Sisters ran between them, straight as an arrow. The city walls rose in the distance, high and strong. A hundred quays lined the waterfront, and the harbor was crowded with ships. Deepwater fishing boats and river runners came and went, ferrymen poled back and forth across the Blackwater Rush, trading galleys unloaded goods from Braavos and Pentos and Lys. Catelyn spied the queen's ornate barge, tied up beside a fat-bellied whaler from the Port of Ibben, its hull black with tar, while upriver a dozen lean golden warships rested in their cribs, sails furled and cruel iron rams lapping at the water. And above it all, frowning down from Aegon's high hill, was the Red Keep; seven huge drum-towers crowned with iron ramparts, an immense grim barbican, vaulted halls and covered bridges, barracks and dungeons and granaries, massive curtain walls studded with archers' nests, all fashioned of pale red stone. Aegon the Conqueror had commanded it built. His son Maegor the Cruel had seen it completed. Afterward he had taken the heads of every stonemason, woodworker, and builder who had labored on it. Only the blood of the dragon would ever know the secrets of the fortress the Dragonlords had built, he vowed. Yet now the banners that flew from its battlements were golden, not black, and where the three-headed dragon had once breathed fire, now pranced the crowned stag of House Baratheon. A high-masted swan ship from the Summer Isles was beating out from port, its white sails huge with wind. The Storm Dancer moved past it, pulling steadily for shore. â€Å"My lady,† Ser Rodrik said, â€Å"I have thought on how best to proceed while I lay abed. You must not enter the castle. I will go in your stead and bring Ser Aron to you in some safe place.† She studied the old knight as the galley drew near to a pier. Moreo was shouting in the vulgar Valyrian of the Free Cities. â€Å"You would be as much at risk as I would.† Ser Rodrik smiled. â€Å"I think not. I looked at my reflection in the water earlier and scarcely recognized myself. My mother was the last person to see me without whiskers, and she is forty years dead. I believe I am safe enough, my lady.† Moreo bellowed a command. As one, sixty oars lifted from the river, then reversed and backed water. The galley slowed. Another shout. The oars slid back inside the hull. As they thumped against the dock, Tyroshi seamen leapt down to tie up. Moreo came bustling up, all smiles. â€Å"King's Landing, my lady, as you did command, and never has a ship made a swifter or surer passage. Will you be needing assistance to carry your things to the castle?† â€Å"We shall not be going to the castle. Perhaps you can suggest an inn, someplace clean and comfortable and not too far from the river.† The Tyroshi fingered his forked green beard. â€Å"Just so. I know of several establishments that might suit your needs. Yet first, if I may be so bold, there is the matter of the second half of the payment we agreed upon. And of course the extra silver you were so kind as to promise. Sixty stags, I believe it was.† â€Å"For the oarmen,† Catelyn reminded him. â€Å"Oh, of a certainty,† said Moreo. â€Å"Though perhaps I should hold it for them until we return to Tyrosh. For the sake of their wives and children. If you give them the silver here, my lady, they will dice it away or spend it all for a night's pleasure.† â€Å"There are worse things to spend money on,† Ser Rodrik put in. â€Å"Winter is coming.† â€Å"A man must make his own choices,† Catelyn said. â€Å"They earned the silver. How they spend it is no concern of mine.† â€Å"As you say, my lady,† Moreo replied, bowing and smiling. Just to be sure, Catelyn paid the oarmen herself, a stag to each man, and a copper to the two men who carried their chests halfway up Visenya's hill to the inn that Moreo had suggested. It was a rambling old place on Eel Alley. The woman who owned it was a sour crone with a wandering eye who looked them over suspiciously and bit the coin that Catelyn offered her to make sure it was real. Her rooms were large and airy, though, and Moreo swore that her fish stew was the most savory in all the Seven Kingdoms. Best of all, she had no interest in their names. â€Å"I think it best if you stay away from the common room,† Ser Rodrik said, after they had settled in. â€Å"Even in a place like this, one never knows who may be watching.† He wore ringmail, dagger, and longsword under a dark cloak with a hood he could pull up over his head. â€Å"I will be back before nightfall, with Ser Aron,† he promised. â€Å"Rest now, my lady.† Catelyn was tired. The voyage had been long and fatiguing, and she was no longer as young as she had been. Her windows opened on the alley and rooftops, with a view of the Blackwater beyond. She watched Ser Rodrik set off, striding briskly through the busy streets until he was lost in the crowds, then decided to take his advice. The bedding was stuffed with straw instead of feathers, but she had no trouble falling asleep. She woke to a pounding on her door. Catelyn sat up sharply. Outside the window, the rooftops of King's Landing were red in the light of the setting sun. She had slept longer than she intended. A fist hammered at her door again, and a voice called out, â€Å"Open, in the name of the king.† â€Å"A moment,† she called out. She wrapped herself in her cloak. The dagger was on the bedside table. She snatched it up before she unlatched the heavy wooden door. The men who pushed into the room wore the black ringmail and golden cloaks of the City Watch. Their leader smiled at the dagger in her hand and said, â€Å"No need for that, m'lady. We're to escort you to the castle.† â€Å"By whose authority?† she said. He showed her a ribbon. Catelyn felt her breath catch in her throat. The seal was a mockingbird, in grey wax. â€Å"Petyr,† she said. So soon. Something must have happened to Ser Rodrik. She looked at the head guardsman. â€Å"Do you know who I am?† â€Å"No, m'lady,† he said. â€Å"M'lord Littlefinger said only to bring you to him, and see that you were not mistreated.† Catelyn nodded. â€Å"You may wait outside while I dress.† She bathed her hands in the basin and wrapped them in clean linen. Her fingers were thick and awkward as she struggled to lace up her bodice and knot a drab brown cloak about her neck. How could Littlefinger have known she was here? Ser Rodrik would never have told him. Old he might be, but he was stubborn, and loyal to a fault. Were they too late, had the Lannisters reached King's Landing before her? No, if that were true, Ned would be here too, and surely he would have come to her. How . . . ? Then she thought, Moreo. The Tyroshi knew who they were and where they were, damn him. She hoped he'd gotten a good price for the information. They had brought a horse for her. The lamps were being lit along the streets as they set out, and Catelyn felt the eyes of the city on her as she rode, surrounded by the guard in their golden cloaks. When they reached the Red Keep, the portcullis was down and the great gates sealed for the night, but the castle windows were alive with flickering lights. The guardsmen left their mounts outside the walls and escorted her through a narrow postern door, then up endless steps to a tower. He was alone in the room, seated at a heavy wooden table, an oil lamp beside him as he wrote. When they ushered her inside, he set down his pen and looked at her. â€Å"Cat,† he said quietly. â€Å"Why have I been brought here in this fashion?† He rose and gestured brusquely to the guards. â€Å"Leave us.† The men departed. â€Å"You were not mistreated, I trust,† he said after they had gone. â€Å"I gave firm instructions.† He noticed her bandages. â€Å"Your hands . . . â€Å" Catelyn ignored the implied question. â€Å"I am not accustomed to being summoned like a serving wench,† she said icily. â€Å"As a boy, you still knew the meaning of courtesy.† â€Å"I've angered you, my lady. That was never my intent.† He looked contrite. The look brought back vivid memories for Catelyn. He had been a sly child, but after his mischiefs he always looked contrite; it was a gift he had. The years had not changed him much. Petyr had been a small boy, and he had grown into a small man, an inch or two shorter than Catelyn, slender and quick, with the sharp features she remembered and the same laughing grey-green eyes. He had a little pointed chin beard now, and threads of silver in his dark hair, though he was still shy of thirty. They went well with the silver mockingbird that fastened his cloak. Even as a child, he had always loved his silver. â€Å"How did you know I was in the city?† she asked him. â€Å"Lord Varys knows all,† Petyr said with a sly smile. â€Å"He will be joining us shortly, but I wanted to see you alone first. It has been too long, Cat. How many years?† Catelyn ignored his familiarity. There were more important questions. â€Å"So it was the King's Spider who found me.† Littlefinger winced. â€Å"You don't want to call him that. He's very sensitive. Comes of being an eunuch, I imagine. Nothing happens in this city without Varys knowing. Oftimes he knows about it before it happens. He has informants everywhere. His little birds, he calls them. One of his little birds heard about your visit. Thankfully, Varys came to me first.† â€Å"Why you?† He shrugged. â€Å"Why not me? I am master of coin, the king's own councillor. Selmy and Lord Renly rode north to meet Robert, and Lord Stannis is gone to Dragonstone, leaving only Maester Pycelle and me. I was the obvious choice. I was ever a friend to your sister Lysa, Varys knows that.† â€Å"Does Varys know about . . . â€Å" â€Å"Lord Varys knows everything . . . except why you are here.† He lifted an eyebrow. â€Å"Why are you here?† â€Å"A wife is allowed to yearn for her husband, and if a mother needs her daughters close, who can tell her no?† Littlefinger laughed. â€Å"Oh, very good, my lady, but please don't expect me to believe that. I know you too well. What were the Tully words again?† Her throat was dry. â€Å"Family, Duty, Honor,† she recited stiffly. He did know her too well. â€Å"Family, Duty, Honor,† he echoed. â€Å"All of which required you to remain in Winterfell, where our Hand left you. No, my lady, something has happened. This sudden trip of yours bespeaks a certain urgency. I beg of you, let me help. Old sweet friends should never hesitate to rely upon each other.† There was a soft knock on the door. â€Å"Enter,† Littlefinger called out. The man who stepped through the door was plump, perfumed, powdered, and as hairless as an egg. He wore a vest of woven gold thread over a loose gown of purple silk, and on his feet were pointed slippers of soft velvet. â€Å"Lady Stark,† he said, taking her hand in both of his, â€Å"to see you again after so many years is such a joy.† His flesh was soft and moist, and his breath smelled of lilacs. â€Å"Oh, your poor hands. Have you burned yourself, sweet lady? The fingers are so delicate . . . Our good Maester Pycelle makes a marvelous salve, shall I send for a jar?† Catelyn slid her fingers from his grasp. â€Å"I thank you, my lord, but my own Maester Luwin has already seen to my hurts.† Varys bobbed his head. â€Å"I was grievous sad to hear about your son. And him so young. The gods are cruel.† â€Å"On that we agree, Lord Varys,† she said. The title was but a courtesy due him as a council member; Varys was lord of nothing but the spiderweb, the master of none but his whisperers. The eunuch spread his soft hands. â€Å"On more than that, I hope, sweet lady. I have great esteem for your husband, our new Hand, and I know we do both love King Robert.† â€Å"Yes,† she was forced to say. â€Å"For a certainty.† â€Å"Never has a king been so beloved as our Robert,† quipped Littlefinger. He smiled slyly. â€Å"At least in Lord Varys's hearing.† â€Å"Good lady,† Varys said with great solicitude. â€Å"There are men in the Free Cities with wondrous healing powers. Say only the word, and I will send for one for your dear Bran.† â€Å"Maester Luwin is doing all that can be done for Bran,† she told him. She would not speak of Bran, not here, not with these men. She trusted Littlefinger only a little, and Varys not at all. She would not let them see her grief. â€Å"Lord Baelish tells me that I have you to thank for bringing me here.† Varys giggled like a little girl. â€Å"Oh, yes. I suppose I am guilty. I hope you forgive me, kind lady.† He eased himself down into a seat and put his hands together. â€Å"I wonder if we might trouble you to show us the dagger?† Catelyn Stark stared at the eunuch in stunned disbelief. He was a spider, she thought wildly, an enchanter or worse. He knew things no one could possibly know, unless . . . â€Å"What have you done to Ser Rodrik?† she demanded. Littlefinger was lost. â€Å"I feel rather like the knight who arrives at the battle without his lance. What dagger are we talking about? Who is Ser Rodrik?† â€Å"Ser Rodrik Cassel is master-at-arms at Winterfell,† Varys informed him. â€Å"I assure you, Lady Stark, nothing at all has been done to the good knight. He did call here early this afternoon. He visited with Ser Aron Santagar in the armory, and they talked of a certain dagger. About sunset, they left the castle together and walked to that dreadful hovel where you were staying. They are still there, drinking in the common room, waiting for your return. Ser Rodrik was very distressed to find you gone.† â€Å"How could you know all that?† â€Å"The whisperings of little birds,† Varys said, smiling. â€Å"I know things, sweet lady. That is the nature of my service.† He shrugged. â€Å"You do have the dagger with you, yes?† Catelyn pulled it out from beneath her cloak and threw it down on the table in front of him. â€Å"Here. Perhaps your little birds will whisper the name of the man it belongs to.† Varys lifted the knife with exaggerated delicacy and ran a thumb along its edge. Blood welled, and he let out a squeal and dropped the dagger back on the table. â€Å"Careful,† Catelyn told him, â€Å"it's sharp.† â€Å"Nothing holds an edge like Valyrian steel,† Littlefinger said as Varys sucked at his bleeding thumb and looked at Catelyn with sullen admonition. Littlefinger hefted the knife lightly in his hand, testing the grip. He flipped it in the air, caught it again with his other hand. â€Å"Such sweet balance. You want to find the owner, is that the reason for this visit? You have no need of Ser Aron for that, my lady. You should have come to me.† â€Å"And if I had,† she said, â€Å"what would you have told me?† â€Å"I would have told you that there was only one knife like this at King's Landing.† He grasped the blade between thumb and forefinger, drew it back over his shoulder, and threw it across the room with a practiced flick of his wrist. It struck the door and buried itself deep in the oak, quivering. â€Å"It's mine.† â€Å"Yours?† It made no sense. Petyr had not been at Winterfell. â€Å"Until the tourney on Prince Joffrey's name day,† he said, crossing the room to wrench the dagger from the wood. â€Å"I backed Ser Jaime in the jousting, along with half the court.† Petyr's sheepish grin made him look half a boy again. â€Å"When Loras Tyrell unhorsed him, many of us became a trifle poorer. Ser Jaime lost a hundred golden dragons, the queen lost an emerald pendant, and I lost my knife. Her Grace got the emerald back, but the winner kept the rest.† â€Å"Who?† Catelyn demanded, her mouth dry with fear. Her fingers ached with remembered pain. â€Å"The Imp,† said Littlefinger as Lord Varys watched her face. â€Å"Tyrion Lannister.†

Notes on Lecture Principles of Economics

Book: Principles of Economics (N. Gregory Mankiw) http://admin. wadsworth. com/resource_uploads/static_resources/0324168624/8413/Mankiw_TenPrinciple_Videos. html Introduction economy: Greek: the one who manages the household scarcity: the limited nature of society`s resources economics: the study of how society manages it? s scarce resources economy: a group of people interacting with one another as they go about their lives important: management of society? s resources; resources are scare most societies, resources are allocated not by a single household, but through the combined action of millions of households and firms Economist: study how people make decisions: how much they must work; what they buy; how much they save; how they invest their savings, how people interact with each other; also analyze forces and trends that effect the economy as a whole, including the growth in average income and the rate at which prices are rising; Ten Principles of Economics: How people make dec isions: #1 People face tradeoffs â€Å"There is no such thing as a free lunch. † To get one desired thing, usually required giving up another desired thing: making decisions ( trading off one goal against another e. : How I spend my money (save/invest); The subject I want to study; The job I want to work in; The meal I am going to have; The place where I want to live or to study abroad †¦ classical tradeoffs: â€Å"guns & butter†; (e. g. reducing pollution vs. low wages and high producing costs) â€Å"efficiency & equity† : conflicts when government policies are being designed efficiency: the property of society getting the most it can from it`s scarce sources (size of economic pie) equity: the property of distributing economic prosperity fairly among the members of society (how the pie is divided) 2 The cost of something is what you give up to get it because people face tradeoffs, making decisions requires comparing the costs and benefits of alternative co urses of action; (often cost of some item not as obvious: e. g. all the incoming cost when decided to study: money & time) opportunity cost: whatever must be given to obtain some item (How much do I have to give up = measure for the trade-off) e. g. start a Master`s Course or not: alternatives (opportunity costs: working; work & travel; another Bachelor; Internship; (each decision causes new Costs. marginal costs? ); #3 Rational People think of the Margin e. g. examination: not black & white: blow of vs: 24h studying ( decisions are shades of gray (airline) e. g. average cots of seat: $500, marginal cost: bag of peanuts & soda (e. g. $20) marginal changes: small incremental (schrittweise, zunehmend) adjustments to a plan of action (adjustments around the edge of what you are doing) e. g. thinking of the alternatives of not proceeding with a Master`s course (opp. Cost), but start to work directly after the B. A. ( marginal costs: lower wage; less career possibilities; marginal benefi ts: a wage at all; BUT: only profitable when marginal benefit of the action exceeds the marginal costs #4 People respond to incentives although comparing costs & benefits (c & b) behaviour may change when costs or benefit change ( d. h. people respond to incentives effect of price on the behaviour of buyers & sellers is crucial e. g. price of an apple rises: buyer: decide to buy pears; fewer apples bec. cost of buying apple is higher; sellers: hire more workers & harvest more apples bec. enefit of selling one is higher e. g. policy changes: tax on gasoline: encourage people to drive smaller, more fuel-efficient cars or public transportation etc. ( when analyzing policy we must consider not only the direct effects but also the indirect effects that work through incentives (e. g seat belt law); if the policy changes incentives, it will cause people to alter their behaviour e. g. when receiving an income parents (money) for studying it might change the incentive to work and earn own mo ney How people interact: #5 Trade can make everyone better off rade bw. Two countries can make each country better off; e. g. each family in the economy is competing with all other families (despite comp: family would not be better off isolating itself; but gains much from its ability to trade with others) ( trade allows each person (country) to specialize in the activities he or she does best; by trading with others, people can buy a greater variety of goods and services at lower costs e. g. #6 Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity . firms decide whom to hire & what to make ouseholds decide which firms to work for & what to buy with their incomes; ( these firms & households interact in the marketplace, where prices & self-interest guide decisions; in a market economy nobody is looking put for economic well-being society as a whole; free markets contain many buyers & sellers of numerous goods & services; all primarily own well-being; ( yet: despite decentraliz ed decisionmaking and self-interested decisionmakers; market economies have proven successful in organizing economic activity in a way that promotes overall economic ell-being ( invisible hand (Adam Smith: 1776): does not ensure that economic prosperity is distributed fairly ( prices are the instrument with which the invisible hand directs economic activity; ( price have to adjust naturally to supply and demand! ( Prices reflect both: value of a good to society & the cost to society of making the good ( bec. ouseholds & firms look at prices when deciding what to buy & sell: unknowingly consider the social benefits & costs of their own actions; ( prices guide these individual decisionmakers to reach outcomes that often maximize the welfare of society as a whole; market economy: an economy that allocates (zuteilen) resources through the decentralized decisions of many firms and households as they interact in markets for goods and services (vs: centrally planned economies, like in comm unism); #7 Government can sometimes improve market outcomes or two broad reasons: ( to promote efficiency and equity: most policies aim either enlarge the economic pie, or to change how it`s devided; invisible hand usually leads markets to allocate resources efficiently, but sometimes it does not work for various reasons: ( market failure: a situation in which a market left on its own, fails to allocate resources efficiently (Marktversagen) one possible reason: ( externality: the impact of one person`s actions on the well-being of a bystander (unbeteiligter Dritter e. g. pollution (external cost) or creation of knowledge (external benefit) (Externalitat) another possible reason: arket power: the ability of a single economic actor (or small group of actors) to have a substantial influence on market prices (Marktmacht) (e. g. only one well: monopoly ( regulation of the price by the government can potentially enhance economic efficiency) How they economy as a whole works #8 A country`s standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services the growth rate of a countries` productivity determines the growth rate of its average income productivity: the amount of goods and services produces from each hour of a worker`s time undamental relationship bw. productivity & living standards is simple, but: its implications are far-reaching! #9 Prices rise when the government prints to much money e. g. 1921: German newspaper: 0,30 Mark; 1923: 70,000,000 Mark ( inflation inflation: an increase in the overall level of prices in the economy (Anstieg des Preisniveaus der Volkswirtschaft) reason: growth in the quantity of the money: reduces value of the money bec. high inflations imposes various costs on society, keeping inflation at a low level is a goal of economic policymakers around the world 10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment Phillips curve: a curve that shows the short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment r educing an inflation is often thought to cause a temporary rise in unemployment over a period of a year or two, many economic policies push inflation and unemployment both start out at high levels; short-time trade-off bec. some prices are slow to adjust; (prices are sticky in the short-run) ( various types of policy have short-run effects, that differ from their long-run effects: when gov. educes the quantity of money, it reduces the amount that people spend; Lower spending together with prices that are stuck too high reduces the quantity of goods & services that firms sell; Lower sales in turn, cause firms to lay off workers ( unemployment [pic] #1 People face tradeoffs #2 The cost of something is what you give up to get it #3 Rational People think of the Margin #4 People respond to incentives #5 Trade can make everyone better off #6 Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity #7 Government can sometimes improve market outcomes 8 A country`s standard of living dep ends on its ability to produce goods and services #9 Prices rise when the government prints to much money #10. Society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment Mon. 17/10/11 Lecture 2 THINK LIKE AN ECONOMIST Microeconomics: the study of how households and firms make decisions & how they interact in markets Macroeconomics: the study of economy-wide phenomena, including inflation, unemployment and economic growth (p. 7) ( since they address different questions, they sometimes take different approaches and are often taught in separate courses; Two Functions of Economists: – 1. (try to explain the world) scientists: devise theories; collect, evaluate & analyze data ( to verify or refute theory; have own terminology; – 2: policy adviser: if Economists try to explain the world, they are scientists; if economists try to change the world they are advisers. † (book) make positive statement (claim): describing real world, model, outcome†¦without valuing: claims that attempt to describe the world as it is: are testable with data †¢ make normative statement (claim): about how the world should be (personal opinion): claims that attempt to prescribe how the world should be: are not testable with only data (involves our views of religion, ethics, political philosphy) †¢ (may be related: our positive views about how the world works affect our normative views about how the world should be; essence of science: scientific method: the dispassionate development and testing of theories about how the world works – scientific method: observation, theory & more observation – Ec. use theory & observation but face obstacles when it comes to experiments; – Substitute for laboratory: attention on natural experiments offered by history (e. g. the effect on the natural resource of oil during a war on the prices all over the world and on policy makers, gives Ec. good opportunity to study the effects of a key natura l resource on the world`s economies; The role of Assumptions: – can make the world easier to understand – e. g. to study effect of international trade, we may assume the world consists of only two countries with each producing only two goods ( to focus our thinking ( helps understand the real more complex world – the art is, which assumption to make: different assumptions for different problems ( e. g. for studying the short-run and long-run effects of a change in the quantity of money requires different assumptions (p. 22) 3 types of models: abstract, formel, simplification of reality to understand basic correlation: if it does: good model) 1. purly theoretical (statistical) 2. purly empirical (with data, data drift) 3. combination of the two – In the model: own terminology is incorporated; built with assumptions (not judging on the assumptions; realistic: think of paper airplane; judge by the output not by the input), irrelevant questions are assumed away 1. First type of model: most simple model of market economy: THE CIRCULAR-FLOW DIAGRAM pic] ( a visual model of economy that shows how money flows through markets among households and firms – 2 types of decisionmakers: households & firms – firms produce goods & services using inputs (labor, land, capital) ( factors of production (natural resources, land, knowledge, labor, human capital, machinery.. ) – households own the factors of production & consume all the goods & services the firms produce – households & firms interact in 2 types of market inner loop: represents the flow of goods & services between households & firms: households sell the use of their labor, land & capital to the firms in the market for the factors of production; firms use these factors to produce goods and services, which in turn are sold to households in the market for g & s; ( the factors of production flow from households to firms; goods & services flow from firms to households; – outer loop: represents the corresponding flow of money to buy g & s from the firms; firms use some of the revenue from these sales to pay for the factors of production (e. . wages of workers); what is left is the profit of the firm owners, who themselves are members of the households; – value of factors of production is same as value of g & s – if that is true: value of goods & services = value of factors of production – (green is so called: real economic activity) – causality runs in both ways (no real beginning or end ( circle) – economic models are often composed of diagrams and equations ——————————- Why do economists disagree: . Disagreement about validity of alternative theories about how the world works; disagreement about positive statements (differences in scientific judgments); but also often about the data; when no data exists that supports ones theory or when different data are used 2. Scientist s have different values; different normative statements about what policy should try to accomplish ( but choosing the positive statement and theory and specific type of date etc. s already bec. of normative reasons (sort of mixture exists); Lecture 3, Mon 24/10/11 2. Second Type of Model: THE PRODUCTION POSSIBILITY FRONTIER (PPF) Fig. 1 [pic] ( shows the combination of output that economy can possibly produce given the available factors of production and the available production technology. The economy can produce any combination on or inside the frontier. Points outside the frontier are not feasibly given the economy`s resources; – e. g. n economy that produces only cars and computers; – if all resources were used in the car industry ( economy would produce 1000 cars & 0 PCs – if all resources were used in the PC industry ( economy would produce 3000 PCs & 0 cars – if economy were to divide its resources between the two industries ( 700 cars & 2000 PCs à ¢â‚¬â€œ outcomes at point D are not possible because of scarce resources: economy does not have enough factors of production to support that level of output; – efficient outcome: when economy is getting all it can get from its scarce resources that are available; points ON the frontier represent efficient levels of production (rather than inside); – when economy is producing at such a point (on the frontier) e. g. point A, there is no way it could produce more of one good, without producing less of the other – inefficient outcome: all combination of outcomes inside the frontier, e. g. point B; for some reasons e. g. idespread unemployment, the economy produces less than it could from the resources it has available: (300 cars & 1000 PCs); if source of inefficiency were eliminated, economy could move from point B to A, increasing production of both cars & PCs; ( People face tradeoffs: PPF shows one tradeoff society faces: once we have reached the frontier, the onl y way of getting more of one good is producing less of the other (e. g. producing more PCs at the expense of producing less cars) ( The cost of something is what you have to give up (opp. cost): PPF shows the opportunity cost of one good as measured as measured in term of the other good (e. g. the opportunity cost of producing 200 more PCs is a 100 cars); Fig. 2 [pic] ( A SHIFT IN THE PPF: an economic advance in the computer industry shifts the PPF outward increasing the number of cars and computers the economy can produce – Fig. : PPF is bowed outward (can also be bowed inward): means: the opportunity cost of cars in terms of computers depends on how much of each good the economy is producing; – When economy uses most of resources to produce cars ( PPF is quite steep – Because even workers & machines best suited to making PCs are being used to make cars, the economy gets a substantial increase in the number of computers for each car it gives up; – By con trast: when economy is using most of its resources to make computers the PPF is quite flat; resource best suited to make PCs are already in the computer industry and each car the economy gives up yields only a small increase in the number of PCs; ( – Slope of the PPF represents how much of one item you have to give up to produce the other item Videos for PPF: – http://www. youtube. com/watch? v=KPHyvOn8i6s&feature=related – http://www. youtube. com/watch? v=a5rxIY46J7s TRADE No. 5: Trade can make everyone better off: WHY ( – We have specialization, which has a downside: we are interdependent! e. g. I`m depending on someone who is making bread; – why should people be willing to depend on the behavior of others: because. people choose freely to become dependent ( so there must be some sort of benefit from it e. g. 2 producers (agents) – one producer: potato farmer ( potatoes (2 goods) – cattle rancher ( meat |Good |Minutes/hours |8 hour s/day |Marginal opportunity cost of | | | | | |meat/potato | |Farmer |Meat |60 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 1 oz |Meat = 8 oz |- 4 oz of pot. = 32/8 | | |Potatoes |15 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 4 oz |Potatoes = 32 oz |- 1/4 oz of meat = 8/32 | |Rancher |Meat |20 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 3 oz |Meat = 24 oz |- 2 oz of pot. = 48/24 | | |Potatoes |10 min. 1 oz = 1h for 6 oz |Potatoes = 48 oz |- 1/2 oz of meat = 24/48 | | | | | |Unit: | | | |oz of potato | |oz of potato | | | |oz of meat | |8h (48/24) | | | | | | | ( How do people decide on what to produce? – more time for farmer to produce meat ( rancher is better/more productive – what are the marginal opportunity costs: how much meat does a farmer have to give up i. o. to get 1 unit of potatoes; – by reducing production of potatoes he would have more time to produce meat; but 1 oz meat requires. 4 oz of potatoes; – but it`s just a linear relation ship – how much has the farmer to give up in order to get 1 more unit of meat! (what is opportunity cost)? rancher has a comparative advantage: is less productive in producing potatoes; but farmer is even less productive in producing meat: derived from comparing the marginal opportunity cost ( Comparative advantage: the comparison among producers of a good according to their opportunity cost (who has the lower one? ) ( or absolute advantage for one product, when both produce more in time: ( Absolute advantage: the comparison among producers of a good according to their productivity 1. Marginal opportunity cost of meat for each person is the inverse of the marginal opportunity cost of potatoes! ( try to measure one good in terms of the VALUE of the other good 2. Production & consumption are no more equal like in autarky |Good |Minutes |8 hours/day |Marginal opportunity cost of | | | | | |meat/potatoes | |Farmer |Meat |60 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 1 oz |Meat = 8 oz |- 6 oz pot. = 48/8 | | |Potatoes |10 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 6 oz |Potatoes = 48 oz |- 0. 16 oz o f meat = 8/48 | |Rancher |Meat |20 min. = 1 oz = 1h for 3 oz |Meat = 24 oz |- 1 oz of pot. = 24/24 | | |Potatoes |20 min. 1 oz = 1h for 3 oz |Potatoes = 24 oz |-1 oz of meat = 24/24 | | | | | | | | | |oz of potato | |Unit: oz of pot | | | |oz of meat | |8h (48/24) | | | | | | | ( The rancher has an absolute advantage because he is more productive than the farmer Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) oz of meat 8 4 16 32 oz of pot ( p = c ( production = consumption) without trade (autarky) ( c bigger p (with trade consume more than can produce) – if I already produce y meat, I can only produce y below the line is a waste of time; and the line shows efficiency in terms of productivity and time, – slope is opportunity cost; usually slope changes depending on where I am already ( Overall conclusion: farmer should produce potatoes while the farmer should produce meat; Assuming each of persons would split the time of production Farmer Rancher (without trade) p = c autarky meat prod. 4 oz 12 oz consumption 4 oz 12 oz potatoes prod. 16 oz 24 oz consumption 16 oz 24 oz meat pot. 0 oz = 30 oz (or changing the price: 34 oz; but relative price must be higher than opportunity cost to trade at all; if he gets more from the trade than in the production, he would not produce and just trade) farmer rancher with trade meat prod. 0 oz 24 oz (18 oz) consumption 5 oz 19 oz (13 oz) potatoes prod. 32 oz 0 oz (12 oz) consumption 17 oz 15 oz (gives up 15 oz) (27 oz) although the farmer has to give up something, he is a little bit better off with trade – the rancher is not better of because he consumes less potatoes than in autarky ( (now: the rancher gets more in term of meat AND in terms of potatoes) – can be applied to countries as well; rough explanation for international trade patterns (e. g when countries exporting cars and importing oil ( country has comparative advantage in producing cars) Questions to be answered: – so define what comparat ive & absolute advantage – show in production possibility frontier – who is producing what NOTES FOR EXERCISES FROM OTHER E. G. CHAPTER 2: Demand – How to define these words properly (definition can only be appropriate or not; not right or wrong); it`s not a question of personal disposition What is a Market: A group of people: suppliers (sellers) and buyers (demand) of particular good or service (does not mean that it`s particularly defined or unique; – no general identification strategy; – competitive market: each buyer and seller (individual) has a negligible effect on the market outcome (infinite no. of sellers and buyers) – implications of perfect competitive markets: buyers and sellers operate economically perfect (take price as given)? ( e. g. we have no influence over the price: take the price as given in a supermarket (no bargaining; no negotiation) ( buyers and sellers are both price takers – in monopolies: price taker vs. pr ice setter Perfect Market and Competitive Market Monopoly, Oligopoly, Monopson, Monopolistic Competition DEMAND Quantity Demanded: is the amount of a good, that buyers are willing and able to purchase (now) Law of Demand: States that, other things equal, the quantity demanded of a good falls when price of the good rises (slopes downward) Demand Schedule: The demand schedule is a table that shows the relationship between the price of the good and the quantity demanded. Demand Curve: Q(p) = p ( function of p (y (x) = 2x): if price changes, the Qd changes MARKET DEMAND vs. INDIVIDUAL DEMAND ( everybody has a single demand: the sum of it = market demand (for a special good demanded) ( demands are added horizontally [pic] Changes in Quantity Demanded: ( result in an movement ON the curve, caused by a change in the price of the product [pic] Examples for incentives that induce a changed Qd: 1. PRICE (given as a variable on the demand curve) 2. Consumer income:normal good: I increase ( Qd decrease; I decrease ( Qd decrease inferior good: I increase ( Qd decrease; I decrease ( Qd increase Normal Good: a good for which, other things equal, an increase in income leads to an increase in demand Inferior Good: a good for which, other things equal, an increase in income leads to a decrease in demand 3. Price of related goods: Substitutes: two goods for which an increase in the price of one leads to an increase in the demand for the other (e. g. orange juice & apple juice): P increase ( Qd increase; P decrease ( Qd decrease Complements: two good for which an increase in the price of one leads to a decrease in the demand of the other (e. g. DVDs & DVD-Players): P increase ( Qd decrease; P decrease ( Qd increase 4. Tastes (fashion, food): economists only examine what happens when tastes change 5. Expectations: may affect demand of a good or service today 6. Number of Buyers: determines the Qd in a market: NoB increase ( Qd increase; NoB decrease ( Qd decrease [pic] ( result in a shifts in the demand curve: when Qd changes because of certain circumstances. But price doesn`t change!!! ( not only price can change demand: a shift in the demand either to left (decrease) or the right (increase) ( caused by any change that alters the demand: everything except the price!! [pic] SUPPLY Quantity supplied (Qs): is the amount of a good that sellers are willing or able to sell (now) Law of supply: states that, other things equal, the quantity supplied of a good rises when the price of the other good rises (slopes upward: positively related) Supply schedule: is a table that shows the relationship between the price of the good and the quantity supplied [pic] – usually the small â€Å"q† refers to the individual supply (a firm) and the â€Å"Q† refers to the market supply (all firms in the market – market supply: refers to the sum of all individual supplies for all sellers of a particular good or service: ( individual supply curves are summed horizontally to obtain the market supply curve – ( S(p) = S1(p) + S2 (p) +†¦ Sm(p) [pic] the sum of 2 individual supplies ($2 ( 3 cones; $ 2 ( 4 cones = $ 2 ( 7 cones in the market supply – if the suppliers (sellers) drop out of the market, the supply would increase with the price â€⠀œ (the supply curve represents the set of profit maximizing quantities for firms) – e. g supply function: q(s) = -4 + 8p; 0 = -4 + 8; 8p = 4; p = ? ( is the minimum price required to get any firm to produce at all (within this given supply curve) ( if the price would be below ? the quantity supplied would be 0, so there would be no firm to produce at all; – slope: change in price divided by change in quantity: e. g. 0 – ? : 4 – 0 = 1/8 (slope), which doesn`t change when the function is linear!! Change in the quantity supplied: – A rise in the price of ice cream results in a movement along the curve (law of supply), so when price changes nothing shifts!! – Shifts of the upply curve: Determinants of change in supply: – Any change that raises the quantity that sellers wish to produce at a given price shifts the supply curve to the right. Any change that lowers the quantity that sellers wish to produce at a given price shifts the supply curve to the left [pic] 1. Input prices: (labor, material, land, rent: anything that goes into the manufacturing process of the item in question): Input Pr. increase ( S decrease; Input Pr. decrease ( S increase 2. Technology: Technology increase ( S increase; Technology decrease ( S decrease: Techn. In economic terms is the process by which inputs are converted to outputs; 3. Expectations: supply today depends on future expectations: e. g. when higher price of ice-cream expected in future ( store some ice cream ( supply less today! 4. Number of sellers (only relevant in market supply) [pic] Supply and Demand together: Equilibrium: a situation in which supply and demand have been brought into balance (quantity supplied equals quantity demanded Equilibrium Price: the price that balances quantity supplied and quantity demanded. On a graph it it’s the price, where demand and supply curves intersect Equilibrium Quantity: the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded when the price has adjusted to balance supply and demand [pic] Ceterius Paribus: other things being equal (latin): all variables other than the one being studied are assumed to be constant Markets Not in Equilibrium A)B) [pic] [pic] Surplus: A situation in which the quantity supplied is greater than the quantity demanded Shortage: A situation in which the quantity demanded is greater than the quantity supplied Law of supply and demand: the claim that the price of any good adjusts to bring the supply and demand for that good into balance – A): when price for ice cream is over the equilibrium price ( quantity demanded is still 4, but the quantity supplied rises to 10 ( there are too many cones produced which can`t be all sold (surplus) bec. f the low demand; ( sellers have to reduce the price again; (prices continues to fall until market reaches equlibrium) – B): when price for ice cream is below the equilibrium price ( quantity supplied 4 exceeds quantity demanded, which is now at 10 (shortage of the good); ( sellers can raise the p rices without losing sales; as prices are rising the market moves again toward the equilibrium – market activity of many buyers & sellers automatically pushes prices toward equil. (law of s & d) – Once equil. is reached all buyers & sellers are satisfied & no upward or downward pressure on price Three Steps to Analyzing Changes in The Equilibrium analyzing the change in the market equilibrium through comparative statistics – comparing two statistics: new and old equilibrium – Three steps to decide: – 1. Does event shift the supply curve, the demand curve, or both? – 2. Does the curve shifts to the left or the right side? – 3. Using the supply-and-demand diagram to examine how the shift affects equilibrium price and quantity A) HOW AN INCREASE IN DEMAND AFFECTS THE EQUILIBRIUM. An event that raises quantity demanded at any given price shifts the demand curve to the right. The equilibrium price and the equilibrium quantity both rise. He re, an abnormally hot summer causes buyers to demand more ice cream. The demand curve shifts from D1 to D2, which causes the equilibrium price to rise from $2. 00 to $2. 50 and the equilibrium quantity to rise from 7 to 10 cones. A)B) [pic][pic] B) HOW A DECREASE IN SUPPLY AFFECTS THE EQUILIBRIUM. An event that reduces quantity supplied at any given price shifts the supply curve to the left. The equilibrium price rises, and the equilibrium quantity falls. Here, an earthquake causes sellers to supply less ice cream. The supply curve shifts from S1 to S2, which causes the equilibrium price to rise from $2. 00 to $2. 50 and the equilibrium quantity to fall from 7 to 4 cones. Shifts in the Curve vs. Movements along the Curve: Notice that when hot weather drives up the price of ice cream, the quantity of ice cream that firms supply rises, even though the supply curve remains the same. In this case, economists say there has been an increase in â€Å"quantity supplied† but no change in â€Å"supply. † â€Å"Supply† refers to the position of the supply curve, whereas the â€Å"quantity sup- plied† refers to the amount suppliers wish to sell. To summarize, a shift in the supply curve is called a â€Å"change in supply,† and a shift in the demand curve is called a â€Å"change in demand. † A movement along a fixed supply curve is called a â€Å"change in the quantity supplied,† and a movement along a fixed demand curve is called a â€Å"change in the quantity demanded. † [pic][pic] A SHIFT IN BOTH SUPPLY AND DEMAND. Here we observe a simultaneous increase in demand and decrease in supply. Two outcomes are possible. In panel (a), the equilibrium price rises from P1 to P2, and the equilibrium quantity rises from Q1 to Q2. (bec. large increase in demand and small decrease in supply) In panel (b), the equilibrium price again rises from P1 to P2, but the equilibrium quantity falls from Q1 to Q2. (because small increase in demand and large decrease in supply) [pic] [pic] NOTES: Elasticity – measures the responsivness for to the quantity demanded and the quantity supplied to a change in the market price by 1 % – measures percentage change in the quantity to a percentage change in price (or other determinants) Price Elasticity of Demand: a measure of how much the quantity demanded of a good responds to a change in the price of that good, computed as the percentage change in quantity demanded divided by the percentage change in price. Determinants of Price Elasticity of Demand: (How do we react to price changes? ) 1. Necessities vs. Luxury goods (depends on personal perception but in general terms: inelastic vs. elastic); e. g. Food, shelter, clothes vs. diamonds, sailboats etc†¦ 2. Availability of close substitute (few vs. less = inelastic vs. elastic) 3. Market Definition (broad vs. narrowed; e. g. Cars vs. Ford Focus; Food vs. Bread†¦) 4. Time Horizon (short vs. long; e. g. the adjustment over a short period of time to gasoline price changes vs. long period of time)